The business cycle dating committee profile unix updating user
The second was that real GDI is a more comprehensive measure of income than real personal income less transfers, as it includes additional sources of income such as undistributed corporate profits.
The committee's use of income-side measures, notably real GDI, is based on the accounting principle that the value of output equals the sum of the incomes that arise from producing the output.
There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.
The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter.
Apart from a random statistical discrepancy, real GDI satisfies that equality while real personal income does not.
The committee also maintains a quarterly chronology of business cycle peak and trough dates.
Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.
At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.
Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973--82, both of which lasted 16 months.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.
The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity.
Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date.